Thousands of real estate professionals enjoyed our lovely weather while pondering the state of the stormy market as part of the Urban Land Institute's annual conference in Miami Beach last week.

Although the commercial market nationally is no where near as bad off as the residential market, commercial real estate still faces its worst year since 1991-1992 -- that's a conclusion of a ULI report released last week.

The report, Emerging Trends in Real Estate, projects losses nationally of 15 percent to 20 percent in real estate values from the mid-2007 peak ``and could be more severe for lesser-quality commercial properties in secondary and tertiary locations.''

Some of the authors' collective advice for investors in commercial property: ``Investors should sit tight. Opportunities will surface at significant discounts. Reorient to mixed-use and infill. Focus on neighborhood retail centers with strong grocery anchors and chain drugstores.''

For this market, the experts recommend: Buy or hold industrial; hold or sell multi-family; hold office, hotels, retail.

When can we expect a recovery? The message from the conference: The market always comes back -- just not in 2009. Read about how our local commercial real estate market has fared in today's special report on pages 15-26.

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This is my last issue as editor of Business Monday. It has truly been an honor and a pleasure serving you.

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